Dr. Peter Daszak
Earth Institute Contact: Dr. Peter Daszak
Additional External Researchers:
Kate Jones, Institute of Zoology, London;
Over three-quarters of the emerging infectious diseases are a result of zoonotic pathogens. Evidence suggests that emerging diseases are driven largely by anthropogenic environmental changes and/or changes in human demographics and behavior, however, the factors driving infectious disease emergence have never been empirically quantified. Data on all diseases termed "emerging infectious diseases" over the past 50 years have been collected paying special attention to the geographical point and time of when the disease began to "emerge" and factor(s) cited as driving the emergence event. For the first time, the spatial and temporal pattern of human disease emergence on a global scale has been demonstrated and the key drivers of emergence quantified to build a predictive model. The aims of this project are to: (1) investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of all human emerging diseases on a global scale, (2) quantify the effect of the most commonly cited primary drivers of all disease emergence, (3) build a predictive model for human emerging diseases and apply this to forecasting on regional and global scales, and (4) anticipate the future emergence of unknown zoonoses, which are widely recognized as the most significant threat to global health.
Cross Cutting Themes:
Hazards and Risk
Consortium for Conservation Medicine, University of Virginia, Institute of Zoology (UK), Princeton University