Earth Institute Contact: Dr. Richard Seager
Research Goals: Model and understand the changes in global climate, and changes in climate variability, over the period from 1000AD to 2200AD. Our primary purpose is to understand future changes in climate as a result of changes in external forcing and greenhouse gas concentration with particular emphasis on regional changes such as variations in rainfall over North America, Africa, and the Asian Monsoon. The idea is to put present and projected climate variability in the context of the past. Climate variability in the modern period of instrumental data is analyzed and simulated to determine the mechanisms of climate variability and climate change. The same models will be used to simulate the climate history of the last millennium and the results compare to proxy evidence to see if the knowledge gained on the modern period can also explain these past climate variations. This will enable us to assign more confidence to model predictions of future climate. The last millennium is chosen a time when significant undulations in climate: the so-called Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age occurs and there is information on variations in solar and volcanic forcing and sufficient high-resolution proxy records available for model verification. The project emphasizes collaboration with GFDL scientists to address research goals that are common to LDEO AND GFDL and support for young researchers.
Cross Cutting Themes:
Climate and Society
Project Web Site: