Earth Institute News Archive

posted 04/14/00

The Metro East Coast Assessment
Preparing for the Consequences of Climate Change on the Home Front

by Kurt Sternlof
Columbia Earth Institute, New York City

As part of a larger national study on the potential consequences of climate variability and change, the Metro East Coast Assessment focuses on how climate does, and will continue to affect the greater New York City metropolitan region.
Metro East Coast Assessment Map

The Columbia Earth Institute (CEI) was in on the ground floor of the national effort expressly because it recognized in the Metro East Coast (MEC) portion a project tailor-made to its mission. The impetus to define the assessment area in terms of New York City came from CEI, said Cynthia Rosenzweig, senior research scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and co-chief investigator of MEC.

"We nick-named the project 'Climate Change and a Global City' exactly because we're actually creating a template that can be used to look at the effects of climate-change on any large urban area," Rosenzweig said.

In terms of sheer magnitude and location, population size, density and cultural diversity, and worldwide importance as a hub of international policy and commerce, New York City has few peers. Thus, what affects New York affects the world, Rosenzweig said. Furthermore, as a coastal city, New York is particularly prone to the effects of global-warming scenarios that forecast rising sea levels and the increasing frequency and ferocity of ocean storms.

The MEC project is based on a broad conceptual model that identifies three main, climate-change sensitive regional elements: People (social-demographic conditions), Place (physical systems and infrastructure), and Pulse (decision-making and economic activities). The project is comprised of six individual sector studies representing the full range of possible impact areas within the three elements. These are Coasts and Wetlands, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, Energy Demand, and Institutional Decision-making.

But the wide-ranging approach does not stop there. The MEC team includes collaborators from throughout Columbia University and beyond. Rosenzweig's project co-leader is Bill Solecki of Montclair State University in New Jersey. Other participating organizations include Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, the School of Public Health, and the Center for International Earth Science Information Network. Researchers from New York University are also involved.

Another key component of the MEC process is the close involvement and feedback of stakeholders - organizations interested in the results because climate variability and change directly impact their operations. These include the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the New York State Emergency Management Office, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Southeast New York Intergovernmental Water Supply Advisory Council, the New York City Department of Health, the Regional Planning Association, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, the New York Power Authority, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, the New Jersey Business and Industry Association, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation, and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

"Our goal is to ensure that the research results are both relevant and useful to the decision-making process," Rosenzweig said. "All the connections are here to assess how climate change and variability could impact a major urban center with both local and global repercussions. As the saying goes, forewarned is forearmed."

The results of the national assessment are scheduled for publication in May. The specific findings of the MEC will be presented at a conference hosted by CEI in mid June.

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The Earth Institute at Columbia University is the world's leading academic center for the integrated study of Earth, its environment and society. The Earth Institute builds upon excellence in the core disciplines — earth sciences, biological sciences, engineering sciences, social sciences and health sciences — and stresses cross-disciplinary approaches to complex problems. Through research, training and global partnerships, it mobilizes science and technology to advance sustainable development, while placing special emphasis on the needs of the world's poor. For more information, visit www.earth.columbia.edu.